Epidemic Prediction Technology

This technology can be used to predict the spread of COVID-19 and help decision makers evaluate the impact of various prevention and control measures on the development of the epidemic.

Free for Public Research Institutions Download Whitepaper

Free Computational and AI Platforms to Help Research, Analyze and Combat COVID-19 ("Program") is intended to support governments worldwide for the research analysis and prevention of COVID-19. You can submit the summary and description of your research project to wanqing.hwq@alibaba-inc.com. All submissions will be reviewed for technical feasibility, and eligible applicants will be contacted for more details and the next steps of the process. Once the submission is successful, the applicant will get a certain amount of coupon according to the project, which is valid for 3months. The coupon can be used for all Alibaba cloud products, including HPC, ECS, and GPU, excluding marketplace products and 3rd party products.

Overview

Overview

Simply upload primary input data to get an epidemic prediction report with 98% prediction accuracy. This technology for epidemic prediction helps you estimate epidemic characteristics of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), such as epidemic size, peak time, and lasting days; predict the spreading trend of a disease in a particular region, including the predictions of active infected, cured, deceased, and critical cases; and provide sensitivity test under three different conditions - optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic - and show different prediction results, as determined by different public healthcare policies and social status.

98% Prediction Accuracy

This technology for epidemic prediction is proven to achieve 98% prediction accuracy based on the data in China.

  • Trend Prediction

  • Prediction of Conditions

This 98% is the averaged difference between predicted curve and existing data. We will forecast about 2 months basing on the hypothesis of current situation to see the curve peak or other features. Please be noted that any important change to the situation will have impact on curves. This algorithm model has been tested on 31 provincial data in China.

How It Works

One-Step Prediction

With this technology, you can get a COVID-19 epidemic prediction report with 98% prediction accuracy by simply uploading primary input data such as flight information, number of new case, number of confirmed case, number of close contacts and the contact date, and number of people under quarantine.

Powered by Machine Learning and Deep Learning

Machine learning and deep learning are used to establish a modified SEIR model to predict the spreading trend of COVID-19 and evaluate the risk of infection increases of a specific region. Specifically, quarantined compartment in the model is added to reflect the common practices in most public health systems, on top of the susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered compartments. The key parameters, such as transmissibility and death rate, are estimated from public government data and epidemiological statistics.

Free for Public Research Institutions

Free Computational and AI Platforms to Help Research, Analyze and Combat COVID-19 ("Program") is intended to support public research institutions worldwide for the research analysis and prevention of COVID-19. You can submit the summary and description of your research project to wanqing.hwq@alibaba-inc.com. All submissions will be reviewed for technical feasibility, and eligible applicants will be contacted for more details and the next steps of the process. Once the submission is successful, the applicant will get a certain amount of coupon according to the project, which is valid for 3months. The coupon can be used for all Alibaba cloud products, including HPC, ECS, and GPU, excluding marketplace products and 3rd party products.

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